Bitcoin Whale Buying Has Stalled Just as the Market Needed It Most, CryptoQuant Says

Bitcoin whale and "dolphin" wallet balances — the large, non-exchange holders whose buying has repeatedly cushioned past downturns — have stopped growing, according to fresh research from on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant.

CryptoQuant defines whales as wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC (excluding exchanges and mining pools) and dolphins as those holding 100 to 1,000 BTC, a cohort now dominated by ETFs and corporate treasury firms. Monthly balance growth for both groups is now near zero simultaneously — whale growth has been flat since February 2026, while dolphin growth has posted successive lower highs since September 2025.

The firm's Head of Research, Julio Moreno, said the setup "mirrors past bear market conditions," noting that whale balances are contracting year-over-year at their fastest pace this year, a pattern that echoes the early stages of the 2022 downturn.

At the same time, long-term holder supply has climbed to a fresh record of roughly 15.8 million BTC — but CryptoQuant cautions this isn't necessarily bullish. Long-term holder supply grows mechanically when coins simply don't change hands, meaning weak new demand rather than strong conviction may be driving the number.

Not every signal points the same direction: separate CryptoQuant data flagged whales "quietly" buying the dip in the $60,000–$61,000 zone in late June, with the Exchange Whale Ratio briefly spiking to 61.6% as more than 11,000 BTC left exchanges — the kind of reading that has marked support levels in past corrections.

Sources: The Block, CryptoQuant Research