Where Bitcoin Actually Stands in the Halving Cycle Right Now

Bitcoin's all-time high of $126,198.07, set on October 6, 2025, is now more than half a year in the rearview mirror. Since then, the asset has corrected by roughly 52% — a drawdown research firm Deep Blue Alpha describes as sitting in "ambiguous territory": large enough to flush out leveraged positioning and euphoric sentiment, but not automatically large enough to mark a generational cycle low.

For comparison, prior cycle bottoms were considerably deeper. The June 2022 low came after a roughly 75%+ drawdown, and the November 2022 low following the FTX collapse was similarly severe. A 52% correction, by that standard, is meaningful but not extreme by Bitcoin's historical volatility.

On-chain researchers point to a handful of signals worth watching together rather than in isolation: exchange reserves sitting near multi-year lows, long-term holder supply at a record high, and a Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) that has dipped below 1.0 — historically a marker of capitulation-stage selling that has preceded stabilization in prior cycles, including 2018, March 2020, and both 2022 lows.

Bitcoin's next scheduled halving — the event that cuts new BTC issuance in half roughly every four years — is estimated for around April 2028. Historically, the twelve to eighteen months following a halving have produced Bitcoin's largest cycle price moves, though CryptoQuant researchers caution that each cycle has introduced new structural factors (ETFs, corporate treasuries, sovereign holdings) with no exact historical precedent.

Sources: BGeometrics Research, CryptoQuant