Bitcoin vs. S&P 500: Which Actually Made More Money?
Over long horizons stretching back to Bitcoin's early years, Bitcoin has dramatically outperformed the S&P 500 in percentage terms โ but the comparison flips depending on exactly which window you pick, and recent periods have narrowed the gap considerably.
Long-run comparison
A $1,000 investment in the S&P 500 in 2013 would be worth roughly $4,000-5,000 today after dividends and appreciation, reflecting the index's strong post-2013 bull run. The same $1,000 in Bitcoin, per the math in our Time Machine tool, would be worth over $100,000 โ vastly higher, but achieved through a path with far larger drawdowns.
Where stocks have actually won
Over some recent five-year windows โ particularly those capturing Bitcoin's 2025-2026 correction from its October 2025 all-time high โ the S&P 500 has outperformed Bitcoin. One widely cited comparison found that a $1,000 bet on the S&P 500 placed in 2021 now beats the same bet placed on Bitcoin, despite crypto's much larger historical swings, because Bitcoin's subsequent 2025-2026 drawdown erased a large share of its prior gains relative to the steadier equity market.
| Period | Typical Outcome |
|---|---|
| 2013-2026 (long run) | Bitcoin dramatically outperforms |
| 2021-2026 (post-peak entry) | S&P 500 has outperformed in several recent comparisons |
Why entry point matters more for Bitcoin
The S&P 500's lower volatility means the specific year you invest changes your outcome less dramatically than it does for Bitcoin. An investor who bought the S&P 500 at any point in the last decade has a reasonably similar experience; a Bitcoin investor's outcome depends heavily on whether they bought near a cycle low or a cycle peak.
S&P 500 return figures reflect commonly cited long-run index performance including dividend reinvestment; exact figures vary by data source and measurement window.