Analyzing the September Curse: Bitcoin’s Future Rally Preparation

Surprising fact: over the past 12 years, September has averaged a roughly -3.8% return for Bitcoin, yet recent Septembers have often reversed into strong Q4 gains.

Bitcoin traded choppily into late August, hovering near $112,900 on August 28 and printing $113,049 at press time. Traders watch whether the september curse will weigh on performance or act as a reset into year-end strength.

The Federal Reserve’s FOMC meets September 16-17, and futures imply a high probability of a cut. That meeting matters because policy shifts shape liquidity, risk appetite, and the bitcoin price path into Q4, especially while inflation still influences macro-sensitive assets.

Seasonality guides positioning but does not guarantee outcomes. With range-bound prices and thin liquidity at times, the market may stay choppy for hours or days until a clear catalyst arrives.

Thesis: the-september-curse-and-how-its-preparing-bitcoin-for-another-rally frames this report—seasonal patterns, macro data, and trader behavior could turn a difficult month into a launchpad for future gains.

Key Takeaways

• September often shows weakness, but recent years have flipped into strong Q4 performance.
• Current bitcoin price sits near $113k after a stop-start August and range-bound trading.
• The Federal Reserve meeting is a potential catalyst that can alter liquidity and risk appetite.
• Seasonality guides short-term positioning but does not ensure a specific outcome.
• Expect choppy action until clear macro or on-chain signals emerge; patience matters.

Why September Matters for Bitcoin in a Future-Facing Market Context

As summer ends, market narratives shift quickly, putting September front and center for macro-driven moves in crypto.

Policy timing matters: the Fed convenes September 16-17, with futures pricing an ~85–90% chance of a rate cut as of late August. Jackson Hole remarks and Chair Powell’s tone pushed Wall Street teams to re-evaluate easing timelines.

Key index prints—July PCE on August 29 and August CPI/PPI on September 11—arrive just ahead of the meeting. These consumer price and inflation snapshots compress decision windows for traders.

Fed officials remain data-dependent, so headlines can change risk premia and liquidity in hours. That rapid shift feeds directly into BTC price moves through cross-asset flows and shifts in market sentiment.

• September often forces a policy repricing after summer, amplifying risks and opportunity for crypto positions.
• Jackson Hole messaging set expectations; now traders weigh inflation vs. labor slack when sizing bets.
• Short time between index prints and the meeting reduces reaction time and raises the chance of sharp moves.

Bottom line: this September blends structural seasonality with immediate macro catalysts. That mix can magnify short-term volatility while shaping longer-term positioning across markets.

Bitcoin’s September Seasonality: Data, Exceptions, and Behavior Signals

Seasonal patterns show a clear tilt in September, but the record also holds exceptions that force caution. Across the past 12 years, september delivered an average decline of roughly -3.8%, making this month the weakest on the calendar based on that data.

Historical returns vs. Q4 strength

September’s profile contrasts with Q4 outperformance. Traders map the month’s statistic into risk sizing and stops while watching for macro news that can reverse the trend.

Notable green Septembers

Exceptions matter: 2015, 2016, 2023 (+3.9%), and 2024 (+7.3%) show one seasonality does not predetermine outcomes. Those years remind traders to keep flexible targets when macro dominates.

Behavioral dynamics and market structure

Daan Crypto Trades highlighted that BTC has never closed both August and September in the green and warned that crowd beliefs can become self-fulfilling. In thin liquidity, prices can whipsaw in key hours after surprise news.

• Widely watched narratives act like an index of crowd positioning.
• Traders translate patterns into price targets, stops, and risk rules.
• One outlier can flip the month; use controls and respect spreads and depth.

Macro Catalysts on the Calendar: PCE, CPI/PPI, and the Fed’s September Meeting

Markets face a compact set of inflation releases that can reshape expectations for the rest of the year.

Key releases ahead:

What traders will watch and why it matters

The July PCE price index lands August 29 and offers a direct read on headline and core inflation. This personal consumption expenditures gauge is the Fed’s preferred metric and influences policy paths.

On September 11, the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes August CPI and PPI, the final inflation checkpoints before the Fed convenes September 16–17. Each index gives a different lens on price pressure and consumption expenditures trends.

Meets-expectations risk and market timing

Futures imply roughly an 85–90% chance of a cut. If readings simply match expectations, momentum for risk assets can fade because easing was already priced-in.

• Stronger-than-expected prints can push rate expectations higher and tighten risk appetite.
• Weaker prints can increase the odds of easing and boost speculative flows, at least briefly.
• Powell’s Jackson Hole comments balanced labor risks and inflation, which led Wall Street to bring forward easing timelines while fed officials stressed data dependence.

Sequence matters: monitor the releases, watch market repricing in the hours after each news print, then track messaging at the meeting. Each step can change the probability-weighted path for price and BTC liquidity.

Bottom line: the pce framework sits alongside other consumption expenditures gauges and the consumer price ladder to form the broader inflation narrative. News-driven repricing can be abrupt, so keep risk controls tight around this calendar cluster.

Trader Positioning and Risk: How Crypto Desks Navigate the September Curse

Professional desks enter September with reduced exposure and clear guardrails to handle sudden liquidity gaps. Many map a consolidation band near $125,000–$110,000 as a likely reset zone that can flush excess leverage and tighten funding.

Ranges and resets: A pause inside that band helps stabilize price and form a healthier base. Flushes remove weak long positions and reduce crowded funding, which often precedes renewed buying.

Flows and timing

Crypto trades typically trim into thin September books, then rebuild into Q4 as calendar support and flows improve. Anthony Pompliano warns that straight-line moves can reverse sharply, so desks prefer staged entries.

• Map the band: use clear invalidation levels around target prices.
• Predefine position sizing and stop-loss logic to control risk if volatility spikes in the hours after key news.
• Prioritize time in the trade over aggressive sizing until macro prints confirm the path.

Behavior coordination matters: everyone waiting to buy the dip can shift order flow and front-run liquidity. Stay alert across sessions — global handovers can move price outside U.S. hours.

the-september-curse-and-how-its-preparing-bitcoin-for-another-rally

A tactical pullback in the coming weeks could act as a controlled reset, setting the stage for renewed upside later in the year.

Upside pathway: If inflation cools and the Fed’s messaging around a probable cut comes without shocking risk assets, dip-bidding can let price reclaim momentum. Daan Crypto Trades suggests a larger dip over one to two weeks may attract buyers and seed a sustainable climb.

Downside controls

Manage liquidity pockets and plan for volatility spikes.

• Map likely liquidity zones where prices can accelerate lower and set explicit invalidation levels.
• Avoid over-leveraging into binary news; stagger entries and use time-based re-entries after key hours.
• Favor consolidation over chasing parabolic moves, echoing Anthony Pompliano’s preference for cleaner range builds.

Bottom line: Use defined entries, clear invalidations, and measured sizing. This way respects the september curse history while staying ready if the reset becomes a clean way back to new highs.

What to Watch Next: Prices, Data, and Policy Signals That Move the Market

Short-term watch: Short-term momentum will hinge on whether the bitcoin price holds daily EMA support after the recent reclaim of the EMA100.

Price and market tells

Watch price structure: track BTC relative to EMA20, EMA50, and EMA100 for continuation or mean reversion signals.

Range breaks and momentum divergences often signal whether buyers will add or sellers will press. Note order flow at key levels to confirm tape control.

Policy and inflation cues

Track PCE (July) on Aug 29 and CPI/PPI (Aug) on Sept 11 as final reads before the Sept 16–17 meeting.

Fed officials remain data dependent; if prints beat expectations, markets may retrace priced-in cuts. If inflation misses, odds of a cut near ~85–90% stay intact and liquidity can widen.

• Keep eyes on EMA alignment, momentum, and range breaks to judge continuation vs reversion.
• Monitor the personal consumption expenditures framework and each price index to see if inflation beats or misses shift policy odds.
• Watch how markets digest news in the hours after releases and whether volatility clusters with risk assets.
• Use a simple dashboard: index prints, implied cut probabilities, and spot-futures basis to read liquidity trends.
• In the next weeks, scale exposure as uncertainty falls; if the meeting surprises, expect quick rotations and rebalancing.

Conclusion

Expect volatility to concentrate in narrow windows as the pce and CPI/PPI sequence and the federal reserve meeting compress decision time for traders. This is a market shaped by a few clear inputs over the next weeks.

Summed up: a tough September can still prepare crypto for strength if inflation cools and policy signals favor a cut. Years of seasonality show caution, but notable exceptions prove outcomes vary.

Keep eyes on liquidity, order flow in the hours after news, and correlations with risk assets. Daan Crypto Trades and other crypto trades advise staged entries, patient sizing, and clear invalidations.

Manage risks with rules, not hope. Respect seasonality, monitor the price index prints, and let confirmed information drive entries as September delivered its verdict in past cycles.